Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi

Macroeconomic Determinants of Indonesia’s Refined Palm Oil Export Perfomance: Evidence from China, India and Pakistan (2010-2024)

Jeisica Jeisica, Niniek Imaningsih — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 00:00:00 -0700

Indonesia is the world’s largest producer and exporter of palm oil, with refined palm oil (RPO) playing an increasingly strategic role in export diversification and downstream industrialization. However, the export performance of Indonesia’s refined palm oil remains volatile, indicating that competitiveness is influenced not only by production capacity but also by macroeconomic conditions, external demand, and international competition. This study examines the determinants of Indonesia’s refined palm oil exports to China, India, and Pakistan during 2010–2024 using a panel data econometric approach. The analysis incorporates the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), trading partner GDP, competitor prices, and downstream industrial policy within a unified framework. Model selection tests identify the Common Effect Model (CEM) as the most appropriate specification. The results show that REER has a negative and statistically significant effect on exports, indicating that exchange rate appreciation weakens Indonesia’s export competitiveness. In contrast, trading partner GDP and competitor prices positively and significantly affect refined palm oil exports, reflecting the importance of external demand and substitution effects in global markets. Meanwhile, the downstream industrial policy variable has a positive but statistically insignificant effect. Overall, the findings suggest that Indonesia’s refined palm oil exports are primarily driven by international competitiveness and global market dynamics rather than domestic policy intervention alone.

Tourism, Foreign Direct Investment, and Energy Consumption: Evidence from Causality Analysis in ASEAN

Putri Dea Nabilah, Deni Kusumawardani — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 00:00:00 -0700

ASEAN’s rapid economic expansion has been increasingly supported by tourism growth and foreign direct investment (FDI), both of which contribute significantly to regional development while simultaneously intensifying energy demand. This study examines the dynamic relationships among tourism, FDI, and energy consumption in ASEAN using a panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Wald causality tests. The results confirm the existence of both short-run and long-run interdependencies among the variables. In the short run, tourism significantly stimulates FDI inflows by expanding market opportunities and demand for tourism-related industries. Conversely, energy consumption negatively affects tourism, indicating that environmental pressure and intensive energy use may reduce tourism competitiveness. In the long run, the strongest relationship occurs between FDI and energy consumption, suggesting that ASEAN’s economic growth remains highly dependent on energy-intensive industrialization and infrastructure development. The findings imply that although ASEAN economies are gradually diversifying through tourism-led service expansion, regional growth continues to rely heavily on industrial and energy-driven activities. Therefore, ASEAN countries need integrated policies that combine tourism development, investment expansion, and sustainable energy management to support long-term economic competitiveness and environmental sustainability.

Does Fiscal Decentralization Improve Social Welfare? Evidence From Indonesian Provinces

Fitri S Kasim, Busman Busman, Zulfikar Jakaputera Djalamang — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 00:00:00 -0700

This study examines the relationship between fiscal decentralization and community welfare in Indonesia by testing the mediating role of economic growth. Using panel data from 34 provinces during 2020–2024, the study applies a formative Structural Equation Modeling–Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) approach to evaluate both direct and indirect structural relationships. Fiscal decentralization is represented by local own-source revenue, capital expenditure, and intergovernmental transfers, while welfare is measured through poverty, real per capita expenditure, life expectancy, and income inequality indicators. The findings reveal that fiscal decentralization has a significant positive direct effect on community welfare, indicating that regional fiscal capacity contributes substantially to improving social outcomes across provinces. However, economic growth does not function as a significant mediating variable, as the indirect effect is statistically insignificant and the predictive relevance of the growth construct remains weak. These results suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal decentralization in Indonesia is driven more by the quality and orientation of public expenditure toward social sectors than by aggregate economic expansion. The study contributes to the fiscal decentralization literature by emphasizing the importance of outcome-based welfare approaches in evaluating regional fiscal performance. Policy implications highlight the need to strengthen welfare-oriented fiscal allocation frameworks to support more inclusive and equitable regional development in Indonesia.

Determinan Putus Sekolah Anak Usia 7–18 Tahun: Peran Kemiskinan, Demografi, dan Anggaran Pendidikan di Kota Palembang

Ainisyah Azzahra, Suhel Suhel, Anna Yulianita — Wed, 30 Apr 2025 00:00:00 -0700

the school dropout rate among children aged 7–18 years in Palembang City during the period 2014–2024. The study employs a quantitative approach using secondary time-series data obtained from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the Palembang City Education Office, and Regional Government Budget (APBD) documents. The analytical method applied is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, which is capable of capturing both short-run and long-run relationships among variables with different orders of integration and is particularly suitable for a relatively small sample size. The findings reveal that poverty, demographic factors, and education expenditure significantly influence the school dropout rate. In the long run, poverty emerges as the most dominant factor contributing to higher dropout rates, while an increase in the school-age population places additional pressure on the regional education system. Conversely, higher education expenditure contributes to reducing the dropout rate, although its effect is relatively smaller than that of poverty. These findings indicate that school dropout is a multidimensional issue shaped by household economic conditions, demographic dynamics, and the effectiveness of education policies. Therefore, efforts to reduce school dropout rates require an integrated policy framework that combines educational development, poverty alleviation strategies, and educational planning that is responsive to demographic changes.

Faktor Internal, Kondisi Makroekonomi, dan Profitabilitas Perbankan di Indonesia: Analisis Dynamic Panel pada Bank Umum Konvensional

Wed, 30 Apr 2025 00:00:00 -0700

This study aims to analyze the determinants of profitability of conventional commercial banks in Indonesia by integrating bank-specific and macroeconomic factors within a dynamic panel framework. The study employs panel data from 62 conventional commercial banks supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK) over the period 2018–2024, resulting in 1,736 observations. Profitability is measured by Return on Assets (ROA), while bank-specific variables include Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Net Interest Margin (NIM), Non-Performing Loan (NPL), Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), Operating Expenses to Operating Income (BOPO), and bank size (ASSET). Macroeconomic variables consist of inflation, BI Rate, and economic growth. The analysis applies the Dynamic Panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to address endogeneity issues and capture profitability persistence. The results reveal that bank profitability exhibits persistence, as indicated by the positive effect of lagged ROA on current profitability. CAR, NIM, NPL, LDR, and BI Rate positively affect profitability, whereas BOPO, bank size, inflation, and economic growth have negative effects. These findings suggest that operational efficiency, capital management, interest income generation, and macroeconomic stability are key determinants of banking profitability. The study provides important implications for regulators and bank managers in formulating policies and strategies to sustain profitability in the banking sector.